The Risk Analysis Process (Risk)
Acumen Risk is an advanced risk analysis tool for managing both cost and schedule risk exposure within a project (or multiple projects).
Acumen Risk uses a Monte Carlo simulation engine, and an integrated project risk register, together with risk approaches such as Uncertainty Factors and Risk Contribution reporting.
Process | |
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1. Import Schedule or Cost Data |
On the S1 // Projects tab, use the Get External Data From group to link to a single project or multiple projects. |
2. Apply Uncertainty |
Use the Duration Uncertainty sliders on the S3 // Risk tab to apply duration or cost uncertainty to a single activity or groups of activities. Move the slider left (more conservative) or right (more aggressive) at any hierarchical level. The assignments automatically cascade down to any children. |
3. Add Risk Events |
Click the matrix icon to the right of the uncertainty sliders to add a new risk event. The event is mapped automatically to the selected activity or group of activities. |
4. Run Risk Analysis |
When you're satisfied with your risk and uncertainty loading, on the S3 // Risk tab, in the Analysis group, click the Run Risk Analysis down-arrow to select the risk analysis/scenario that you want to run. |
5. View the Risk Exposure Chart |
After running the risk analysis, your results are displayed in a histogram in the right panel. Right-click on any confidence level to view contingency. View probabilistic dates in the histogram and chart. |
6. View the Risk Drivers Chart |
On the S3 // Risks tab, in the View group, click Right Panel » Risk Drivers to view schedule and cost risk drivers. Using the Acumen Risk Contribution Factor, find out how much impact activities and risk events have on any given milestone or group of activities. |
- Related Topics:
- Why Use Risk Analysis?
Risk analysis allows you to gain true insight into schedule achievability, pinpoint risk hotspots that may cause delay, and structure an approach to reduce risk exposure. - Risk vs. Uncertainty
When you model risks in your schedule, do you apply the risk as uncertainty or a risk event? This topic describes the difference between the two. - Monte Carlo Simulation Engine
Acumen uses a Monte Carlo simulation of risk. This involves the use of a random number generator for values between your defined ranges and is the most common approach to schedule risks assessment.